Adobe ColdFusion MX?
Now, I am almost never one to stand in the way of business progress, however this doesn't seem to be a good day for application developers. There are those who believe that with more capital, everything gets better, but this developer is not one of those people. Does Adobe have better marketing than Macromedia? Arguably, no they don't. Has Macromedia done a great job of marketing ColdFusion? No, they haven't. Will a combined Macromedia and Adobe do a better job than an unacquired Macromedia? Probably not. I don't think that Adobe will put the resources that are needed behind future ColdFusion development. It is just too far away from their core business competency. So just where will ColdFusion go?
It makes sense for Adobe to sell off ColdFusion and Flex, kill Freehand, GoLive, and ImageReady, and roll Dreamweaver and Fireworks into their Creative Suite in their place. It also makes sense for them to continue Breeze development as that is well within their abilities. Flash will probably thrive under the combined company as should RoboHelp, etc…
I think that if Microsoft is paying attention, and I believe they are, it makes sense for them to acquire ColdFusion from Adobe and combine it, Flex, and XAML into one ubiquitous language. It wouldn't be too hard to map ColdFusion to XAML and vice-versa. The benefit to Microsoft is that they could phase out ASP altogether and embrace the tag-based ColdFusion as their web development language of choice. After all it is in line with their corporate vision which is apparently to let web developers make desktop applications as easily as they currently build web applications.
While I don't particularly relish the idea of Microsoft owning my current development lanugage of choice, they do know a thing or two about marketing code, and it wouldn't be difficult to have it run on top of the .net framework and Java so that it could be portable. It would of course be a little faster on the .net framework. Besides, Microsoft ColdFusion just sounds better than Adobe ColdFusion. Having used the VisualStudio beta for C#. I really like it. I could get used to this being my development environment for ColdFusion. It would also be nice for Microsoft to release a VisualWebStudio for Mac and PC centering around ColdFusion. While we are speculating, it would also be nice to have a .net framework for Mac and Linux, but this could take a while.
So, lets assume that Adobe has a clue of what they have in ColdFusion. They could begin to use it to develop their own desktop application language around Flex and the standalone Flash player. This is why Redmond's ears will be perked up today, and for the next couple of years. Adobe has interest in delivering 3D over the web, and Flash makes a good vehicle for this. It would be possible to either expand the Flash player into a Flash runtime and use ColdFusion as the language to create all sorts of juicy applications that spanned the web and the desktop. They would then be in a position to deliver a rapid development environment for desktop applications and would compete squarely with Java and Microsoft in this space, albeit with a much better interface aestetic.
I hope the latter is what will happen. I belive that competition in all aspects of technology are good for consumers and the overall business. Still, either way ColdFusion has either a very bright future, or a very convoluted future. I find it interesting that none of the analysts looking at this acquisition are looking at ColdFusion. I guess that is because it isn't the primary business driver for Macromedia, and Adobe is all about graphics, which is my primary concern.
There is a third option, and one which looks really good to me. It is possible that Adobe will simply allow ColdFusion to languish and eventually the product in that form will atrophy and die. This would be bad, but there is an open source movement for an OSS version of ColdFusion. It would be sweet to see this because it would become more robust, more object oriented, and a lot faster. It would also be more secure because of all the eyes on the code. ColdFusion could become an underground hit, much the way that PHP has been getting a lot of attention recently.
All of this will marginalize the need for PC users to upgrade to Longhorn. Microsoft already is going to have a tough sell to businesses based on the stagnation of hardware sales and the poor business case for upgrading. Most large organizations are still running Windows 2000, and they are going to tell them that they have to upgrade every system company wide in order to run this? If they can get away with it, I'd expect most organizations to upgrade to Macintoshes because of their lighter IT demands and more granular controls over user access.
Microsoft has to get XAML right, and it makes sense for them to buy their only real competition which is ColdFusion, especially now that it is owned by an ally who is almost incapable of understanding it, or its fanatical developer base (of which I am proud to be a part). They would probably let Microsoft have it for a song, and ultimately ColdFusion would be a more robust language with wider appeal. This would be a good thing. But Microsoft really needs to get their act together today if they hope to sell even one copy of Longhorn Server. If CF were bundled in the IIS package with this, I would most certainly upgrade to it. I think that most developers who don't have an irrational hatred of Microsoft would too, if it were a serious effort to make both CF and IIS better. My major gripe with Microsoft is that they make consistently boneheaded business decisions, missing the boat entirely in some places, and jumping out with an idea that is ten years ahead of its time in others. I don't hate them for obscure philosophical reasons, in fact I don't hate them at all, I just think they aren't getting the best out of their products or their developer community, and aren't offering their customers what they want.